Hospitality Sector Index (HSI): Previous editions
Previous editions of our monthly Hospitality Sector Index (HSI) that provides a valuable indication of the changes occurring within the sector. For the recent edition, please click here.
The May 2025 Index: 105.9
An index above 100 indicates improved productivity compared with the previous month; below 100 shows a decline.
Our analysis
Based on April data, the HSI is a positive index of 105.9. This suggests the sector has boosted productivity in response to growing employment costs.
Key findings:
- Like-for-like revenues went up by 5.66%, primarily as a result of the Easter weekend boost. Hospitality businesses have also been increasing prices to cope with inflationary pressures, including the impact of higher employment costs in April.
- There was a marginal 0.26% decrease in hours worked despite the extra demand of the Easter weekend, illustrating the caution hospitality businesses are exercising due to rising employment costs.
Peter Davies, Partner and Head of Troncmaster Services at Moore Kingston Smith, said: “While the boost of the Easter weekend did much to mask or delay any immediate downturn following employer National Insurance and national minimum wage increases, there may still be trouble ahead.
“Revenues across casual dining remained stable with small increases for pubs and bars, with the combination of the Easter holidays and unseasonably fine weather likely drivers.
“The hotel sector has begun to recover from a slower than expected start to 2025, with international inbound travel, particularly from the US, lower than anticipated.
“Businesses had to make tough choices across February and March to prepare for rising costs in April, including recruitment freezes, and coping with demand by increasing full time staff hours while cutting back on part time workers, which the National Insurance rises have hit the hardest.
“A 6.19% increase in fine dining revenue was achieved with just a 1.91% increase in hours worked, showing improved efficiency, productivity and guest spend.”
The June 2025 Index: 100.8
An index above 100 indicates improved productivity compared with the previous month; below 100 shows a decline.
Our analysis
The June Hospitality Sector Index paints a challenging picture for the industry. Despite seasonal factors that typically boost performance, such as bank holidays and favourable weather, revenues have remained flat. This has forced operators to focus on productivity gains and cost control to maintain stability.
Key findings
- The Index stands at 100.8, indicating marginal growth driven by productivity improvements rather than revenue gains.
- Revenues declined by 0.18%, despite seasonal expectations for growth.
- Worked hours fell by 0.99%, reflecting efforts to offset rising employment costs.
Despite the slight decline in revenue, the sector has managed to stay in positive territory due to a reduction in hours worked. This suggests that businesses are actively managing staffing levels to counteract the impact of April’s increases in employer National Insurance and the National Minimum Wage.
Casual dining, pubs and bars have seen a downturn in revenue, possibly indicating a tightening of consumer discretionary spending. In contrast, hotels and fine dining experienced modest revenue growth, but this was accompanied by a notable drop in worked hours, over 3% in fine dining, highlighting a continued emphasis on efficiency.
These trends align with recent reports showing that over 100,000 jobs have been lost since the National Insurance hikes took effect, and hospitality sector vacancies have dropped by more than 3,000 in the three months ending May. This month is the final full month before the summer holiday season so is critical for many businesses in the sector.
How we can help
For more information about the Hospitality Sector Index, TroncBox or our solutions to the hospitality sector, please contact one of the team.
How we collect the data
The Moore Kingston Smith Hospitality Sector Index compares changes in revenues and hours worked relative to the prior month. The data for the Index is gathered by WMT Troncmaster Services Limited, part of Moore Kingston Smith, which manages tronc allocations for circa 315 hospitality businesses operating across nearly 900 sites. The data is extracted from our proprietary software, TroncBox, used for the majority of these tronc allocations.
The index offers a broad indication of productivity changes on a month-by-month basis, where an index above 100 indicates improved productivity and below 100 indicates a decline.
The use of tronc allocation information provides a valid data source following the introduction of the Employment (Allocation of Tips) Act on 1 October 2024, which requires 100% of service charge (and tips) to be distributed among all employees without deductions no later than the end of the month following its receipt. Typically, restaurants, pubs and bars distribute tips and service charge at the end of the same month the gratuity is received, however given the nature of the business and the regular use of agency workers, it is commonplace for hotels to make these distributions to workers in arrears which means there is an inherent lag in the hotel sector data.
Published monthly, each Hospitality Sector Index will build on earlier editions to track performance over time, with year-on-year analysis available from October 2025.
