Hospitality Sector Index (HSI): Previous editions

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Restaurants, pubs and bars – November 2025

Our analysis

November 2025 vs prior month

The UK hospitality industry showed marginal progress in November 2025, as revenue increased by 0.60% with a similar 0.52% rise in hours worked suggesting further productivity improvement opportunities are limited.

The Fine Dining segment demonstrated positive momentum, observing a like-for-like revenue uplift of 1.25% alongside a 1.38% increase in hours worked. This movement was driven by a heightened demand for premium dining experiences as the festive period starts, with corporate events and seasonal celebrations contributing to stronger performance.

The Pubs and Bars segment recorded a 3.89% increase in revenue (on a like-for-like basis), supported by an increase in seasonal social events. This significant revenue uplift was achieved with a 1.00% rise in hours worked, reflecting strong operational leverage and efficient management of labour.

In contrast, Casual Dining is feeling the pressure as the operators reported a 2.00% decline in revenue, along with a 0.38% rise in hours worked (on a like-for-like basis). This trend suggests a possible shift in consumer behaviour, with patrons either opting for more premium experiences, as seen in the Fine Dining sector’s growth, or choosing home-based celebrations, thereby squeezing the casual dining market.

November 2025 vs November 2024

The UK restaurant sector showed an upturn in revenue in November 2025 compared to the previous year, however the like-for-like increase of 2.73% is still noticeably lower than inflation for the same period. Whilst revenue trends varied between segments, a managerial focus on enhancing operational efficiency was evident through a consistent reduction in hours worked across the board. The data supports the anecdotal suggestions that the fears that these government led increases in wage inflation have resulted in reduced employment opportunities in the sector.

Pubs and Bars observed a like-for-like 2.23% revenue increase compared to the same month a year ago. This was achieved with a more significant 3.26% fall in hours worked indicating that operators are tightening their staffing models to reduce labour costs and maintain profitability.

Casual Dining has faced the most challenging conditions, experiencing a 4.84% like-for-like decline in revenue and an even steeper 7.05% decrease in labour hours. These figures illustrate the contemporary cost-of-living pressure facing the UK public, in which consumers are cutting discretionary spending on everyday dining experiences.

Fine Dining continues to outperform other categories, with an annual like-for-like uplift in revenue of 8.97% whilst also managing a 0.92% dip in hours worked. This suggests that these operators continue be streamlining operations and consumers demonstrate an ongoing willingness to opt for premium experiences and high-quality food, even in a challenging economic climate and operators have been able to pass on some of the inflationary pressures.

Hotels – October 2025*

 *The hotel data reflects a period one month earlier than the restaurant data due to an industry reporting lag.

Our analysis

October 2025 vs prior month

In the Hotel sector, comparing October 2025 with September 2025 on a like-for-like basis, revenue grew significantly by 8.36%, while hours worked saw a slight decline of 0.13%. This pattern mirrors the broader trend observed across other segments during the same relative period. The sharp revenue increase can be attributed to an increased demand for leisure breaks, business conferences and seasonal bookings. The marginal reduction in labour hours suggests operators continue to maintain vigilant regarding cost control.

October 2025 vs October 2024

Based on October’s year-on-year data, Hotel’s observed a 1.37% increase in revenue. However, this was achieved with a 4.87% decrease in hours worked, also illustrating a conscious strategy by operators to improve operational efficiency in order to protect margins.

Summary

Month-on-month summary

In summary, these trends reflect the agility of the UK hospitality sector during the festive period. While premium and social experiences enjoyed growth in certain segments, other operators faced pressure from changing consumer behaviours. Labour hours have remained relatively stable over the period, suggesting that businesses are maintaining consistent staffing levels to manage seasonal pressures without incurring additional costs.

Year-on-year summary

In conclusion, the UK hospitality industry is actively adapting to changing consumer spending habits and rising operational costs. While revenue patterns differ, the consistent decline in labour hours across all segments paints a clear picture of an industry focused on productivity optimisation to ensure long-term profitability and short-term viability.

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Restaurants, pubs and bars – October 2025

Our analysis

October 2025 vs prior month

In October 2025, the UK hospitality sector demonstrated positive momentum, influenced in part by seasonal changes. Casual Dining outperformed other segments, with service charge revenue up 12.30% and hours worked up 3.09%. These figures reflect the contemporary appeal of high-quality dining at an affordable price during times of economic pressure.

The Pubs and Bars segment saw service charge revenue grow by 2.66%, supported by sports events and seasonal promotions. Yet, hours worked fell by 2.38%. This suggests that businesses are continuing to strive for operational efficiencies, implementing tighter staffing models to offset rising labour costs.

October 2025 vs October 2024

Fine Dining experienced a slight decline, with revenue down 0.30% and hours worked down 0.28%. Given the inflationary effect, this suggests consumers are prioritising more affordable options, as the increased economic pressures placed on the UK public has caused a reduction in discretionary spending on premium experiences.

Casual Dining observed a 0.21% increase in revenue, which is less than inflation.  Hours worked fell by 7.38%, suggesting businesses have streamlined operations to offset rising labour costs over the past year.

Pubs & Bars segment showed an increase of 4.34% in revenue, combatting the inflationary pressures while hours worked declined by 7.55%. This efficiency drive highlights the focus on maintaining profitability during a time of economic uncertainty.

In summary, while some segments reported marginal revenue increases from October 2024, the actual growth of UK hospitality remains negative, as inflation continues to rise and erode any real-term gains. A shift in consumer behaviour has certainly been observed, with more affordable dining being in higher demand, while businesses continue to make operational adjustments to reduce labour costs.

Hotels – September 2025*

 *The hotel data reflects a period one month earlier than the restaurant data due to an industry reporting lag.

Our analysis

September 2025 to last month indicates a 0.78% revenue increase and a 3.57% rise in hours worked, driven by late-summer travel and a recovery in corporate bookings.

In the Hotel sector, comparing September year-on-year, revenue grew 2.72%, while hours worked fell 1.71%. While the revenue gains illustrated are at first sight encouraging, in real terms after factoring inflation it is clear that the sector continues to face pressures.

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The September 2025 Index: 97.3

An index above 100 indicates improved productivity compared with the previous month; below 100 shows a decline.

Our analysis

Revenue for September declined by 5.44%, marking a notable dip in trading performance. In London, this downturn was significantly influenced by a week-long series of Tube strikes, which led to a sharp reduction in footfall. However, the impact extends beyond transport disruptions.

Across the UK, the broader economic environment continues to weigh heavily on consumer behaviour. Persistent cost of living pressures, coupled with growing concerns about potential tax increases in the upcoming November Budget, appear to be prompting consumers to tighten discretionary spending. This cautious approach is reflected in reduced customer volumes and lower average transaction values.

In response to the revenue shortfall, operators took steps to manage costs by reducing worked hours by 2.85%. While this demonstrates a proactive approach to labour cost control, it was insufficient to fully offset the decline in income. The figures suggest that businesses are navigating a challenging landscape, balancing operational efficiency with the need to maintain service levels and customer experience.

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The August 2025 Index: 94.4

An index above 100 indicates improved productivity compared with the previous month; below 100 shows a decline.

Our analysis

The August Hospitality Sector Index, comparing August to July performance, shows how difficult the current market is within the sector.  Seasonality is always a challenge, but August 2025 has proved to be a very difficult month as the sector suffered a 9.12% decline in like-for-like revenues relative to July.

Numerous high profile closures demonstrate the severity of the pressures being felt across the sector.  The Hospitality Index in prior months demonstrated that businesses had been working hard to find productivity gains to combat the impact of the changes to the Employer’s National Insurance contribution, National Minimum Wage and inflationary pressure but those efficiency gains could only continue so far; August data suggest that further productivity improvements have proved elusive and the Hospitality Sector Index stands at 94.4 relative to July as hours worked in the sector fell (3.71%) at a slower rate than the decline in revenue (9.12%).

The fine dining segment of the market had been holding up well in prior months, but it has been the hardest hit in August as it suffered a 12.08% fall in revenue. This sharp decline underscores the mounting pressures facing the sector, marking August as a particularly challenging month.

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The July 2025 Index: 107.2

An index above 100 indicates improved productivity compared with the previous month; below 100 shows a decline.

Our analysis

The July data paints a cautiously optimistic picture for the improved productivity in the hospitality sector, with the Hospitality Index rising to 107.2 reflecting an increase in revenues in the sector whilst the overall hours worked remained relatively static.   

The uplift in service charge revenue reflects the seasonal changes that would be expected combined with inflationary effect, rather than significantly stronger consumer engagement and spending.  The continued spell of good weather in July boosted results. Additionally, an uptick in events and social activity, coinciding with the start of the summer holidays, has contributed to increased footfall, especially in urban and tourist-heavy areas like London. 

Interestingly, while hotels saw the largest increase in revenues (+12.59%), their hours only rose by 1.44%, reinforcing the trend of margin-focused operations.  Employers appear to be actively managing headcount and hours worked due to ongoing cost pressures.  

“We’re seeing venues do more with less, maximising revenue without a proportional increase in staffing. It’s a sign of resilience, but also a reminder that the sector is still navigating a delicate balance between growth and caution,” said Peter Davies, Hospitality Partner. 

The  fine dining segment continues to perform well, with a 7.93% increase in service charge, despite a slight dip in hours worked (-0.68%). This could indicate higher spend per guest or improved operational efficiency. Meanwhile, pubs and bars saw a modest decline in funds (-1.17%), though hours increased slightly, suggesting a shift in consumer behaviour or pricing strategy. 

Overall, July’s figures suggest that the sector is benefiting from seasonal tailwinds but the static labour metrics continue to illustrate a more conservative approach to staffing and long-term investment. 

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The June 2025 Index: 102.1

An index above 100 indicates improved productivity compared with the previous month; below 100 shows a decline.

Our analysis

Based on June data, the month’s Hospitality Sector Index (HSI) is a positive index of 102.1 showing the sector continues to work hard to increase productivity in response to growing employment costs.

Key findings

• Relative to May, the like-for-like revenues in June increased by 4.48%. There would be a seasonal uplift expected at this time of year which would improve like-for-like revenues, but is notable that the fine dining sector continues to be outperforming other parts of the sector.
• The hotel sector has only enjoyed a 2.12% increase in revenues relative to May.
• There was only a modest 2.31% increase in hours worked despite the extra seasonal demand, illustrating the continuing caution hospitality businesses are exercising in respect of managing employment costs, notably in pubs and bars where the hours worked actually decreased by 0.46% relative to the prior month.

Peter Davies, Partner and Head of Troncmaster Services at Moore Kingston Smith, said:

“The wonderful weather has helped tremendously and provided a much-needed seasonal boost which has enabled the sector to benefit from revenue increases and therefore continue to improve productivity.

Revenues across fine dining have remained encouraging but the hotel sector improvement is notably modest relative to the rest of the sector – probably a consequence of increased price sensitivity dampening demand and lower levels of international travel which is affecting London in particular. A 2.12% increase in hotel revenue was offset with a 3.12% increase in hours worked, showing a decline in productivity within that category suggesting a lower guest spend per head.

Pubs and Bars particularly benefited from the warm and dry weather seeing a 3.84% increase in revenues in the month, delivered with fewer worked hours suggesting it was a combination of higher spend per head or inflationary price increases that drove the month-on-month revenue improvement.

As we move into the high summer period with key events in July such as Wimbledon and high-profile pop concerts in major cities, it will be fascinating to see if there is a noticeable improvement in the sector next month.”

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The May 2025 Index: 100.8

An index above 100 indicates improved productivity compared with the previous month; below 100 shows a decline.

Our analysis

The May Hospitality Sector Index paints a challenging picture for the industry. Despite seasonal factors that typically boost performance, such as bank holidays and favourable weather, revenues have remained flat. This has forced operators to focus on productivity gains and cost control to maintain stability.

Key findings

• The Index stands at 100.8, indicating marginal growth driven by productivity improvements rather than revenue gains.
• Revenues declined by 0.18%, despite seasonal expectations for growth.
• Worked hours fell by 0.99%, reflecting efforts to offset rising employment costs.

Despite the slight decline in revenue, the sector has managed to stay in positive territory due to a reduction in hours worked. This suggests that businesses are actively managing staffing levels to counteract the impact of April’s increases in employer National Insurance and the National Minimum Wage.

Casual dining, pubs and bars have seen a downturn in revenue, possibly indicating a tightening of consumer discretionary spending. In contrast, hotels and fine dining experienced modest revenue growth, but this was accompanied by a notable drop in worked hours, over 3% in fine dining, highlighting a continued emphasis on efficiency.

These trends align with recent reports showing that over 100,000 jobs have been lost since the National Insurance hikes took effect, and hospitality sector vacancies have dropped by more than 3,000 in the three months ending May. This month is the final full month before the summer holiday season so is critical for many businesses in the sector.

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The April 2025 Index: 105.9

An index above 100 indicates improved productivity compared with the previous month; below 100 shows a decline.

Our analysis

Based on April data, the HSI is a positive index of 105.9. This suggests the sector has boosted productivity in response to growing employment costs.

Key findings:

• Like-for-like revenues went up by 5.66%, primarily as a result of the Easter weekend boost. Hospitality businesses have also been increasing prices to cope with inflationary pressures, including the impact of higher employment costs in April.
• There was a marginal 0.26% decrease in hours worked despite the extra demand of the Easter weekend, illustrating the caution hospitality businesses are exercising due to rising employment costs.

Peter Davies, Partner and Head of Troncmaster Services at Moore Kingston Smith, said: “While the boost of the Easter weekend did much to mask or delay any immediate downturn following employer National Insurance and national minimum wage increases, there may still be trouble ahead.

“Revenues across casual dining remained stable with small increases for pubs and bars, with the combination of the Easter holidays and unseasonably fine weather likely drivers.

“The hotel sector has begun to recover from a slower than expected start to 2025, with international inbound travel, particularly from the US, lower than anticipated.

“Businesses had to make tough choices across February and March to prepare for rising costs in April, including recruitment freezes, and coping with demand by increasing full time staff hours while cutting back on part time workers, which the National Insurance rises have hit the hardest.

“A 6.19% increase in fine dining revenue was achieved with just a 1.91% increase in hours worked, showing improved efficiency, productivity and guest spend.”

How we collect the data

The Moore Kingston Smith Hospitality Sector Index compares changes in revenues and hours worked relative to the prior month. The data for the Index is gathered by WMT Troncmaster Services Limited, part of Moore Kingston Smith, which manages tronc allocations for circa 315 hospitality businesses operating across nearly 900 sites. The data is extracted from our proprietary software, TroncBox, used for the majority of these tronc allocations.

The index offers a broad indication of productivity changes on a month-by-month basis, where an index above 100 indicates improved productivity and below 100 indicates a decline.

The use of tronc allocation information provides a valid data source following the introduction of the Employment (Allocation of Tips) Act on 1 October 2024, which requires 100% of service charge (and tips) to be distributed among all employees without deductions no later than the end of the month following its receipt. Typically, restaurants, pubs and bars distribute tips and service charge at the end of the same month the gratuity is received, however given the nature of the business and the regular use of agency workers, it is commonplace for hotels to make these distributions to workers in arrears which means there is an inherent lag in the hotel sector data.

Published monthly, each Hospitality Sector Index will build on earlier editions to track performance over time, with year-on-year analysis available from October 2025.